Oil Prices Dip on Progress in US-Iran Nuclear Talks, Easing Supply Fears

Oil prices fell around 1% as progress in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks eased concerns over disrupted Iranian supply. Brent crude dropped 70 cents to $67.26 per barrel, while WTI slid 68 cents to $64.00 in early Monday trading. The dip followed strong gains last Thursday, with both benchmarks rising over 3% before the Good Friday holiday break. Iran’s foreign minister said the two countries agreed to start forming a nuclear deal framework, which a U.S. official described as “very good progress.” This comes despite the U.S. imposing new sanctions, including against a Chinese teapot refinery accused of processing Iranian crude. The potential deal could increase Iranian oil supply, lowering global prices. Last week, Brent and WTI both posted about 5% weekly gains—ending a three-week losing streak—fueled by geopolitical concerns and trade optimism. Meanwhile, Russia and Ukraine blamed each other for breaking a brief Easter ceasefire, adding to broader market uncertainty.

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Trump Administration Begins Public Input on Expanded Offshore Drilling Plan

The U.S. Interior Department announced the launch of a public comment period for a new five-year offshore oil and gas leasing plan under President Donald Trump’s directive. The plan could include new drilling zones, including areas in the Arctic, as part of efforts to boost domestic energy production. Trump had previously rolled back former President Biden’s restrictions on Arctic and coastal drilling. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said the initiative aims to "unlock the full potential" of offshore resources. The department emphasized that no specific lease sites or timelines are proposed yet, and it seeks feedback from stakeholders on potential leasing areas and concerns. The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management recently gained jurisdiction over a new High Arctic planning area, hinting at possible future drilling there. Existing lease auctions in the Gulf of Mexico, already scheduled under Biden’s administration, will continue. Offshore leases currently contribute about 14% of total U.S. crude oil production.

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Russia Boosts Arctic Oil Exports to China via Sanctions-Evading Transfers

Russia’s Arctic oil exports to China are surging in April, aided by ship-to-ship (STS) transfers that help avoid U.S. sanctions on specific tankers and oil grades. These transfers occur in international waters near Singapore and Malaysia, enabling crude to be loaded onto non-sanctioned VLCCs before reaching China. Vortexa estimates at least 4 million barrels completed STS transfers last week, with 16 million more expected in April. Chinese refiners are cautiously resuming Arctic oil imports, wary of secondary sanctions but willing to pay more for STS cargoes. One VLCC, Atila, delivered over 2 million barrels of Arctic oil to Shandong after loading from sanctioned tankers via STS. Russia's Arctic oil grades include ARCO, Novy Port, and Varandey, shipped from Murmansk and now sold at discounts to Brent due to high logistics costs. India, once a top buyer, has reduced purchases under sanctions pressure, while new buyers include Syria and Myanmar. Some cargoes remain floating or delayed, such as the Fast Kathy, which has been idle off Egypt for days.

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Russian Urals Discounts Hold at Indian Ports Despite Saudi Price Cuts

Russian Urals oil cargoes loading in May are maintaining steady discounts of $2.50–$3 per barrel to dated Brent at Indian ports, similar to April levels, according to four trading sources. This stability comes even as Saudi Arabia slashed the price of its competing Arab Light crude by $2.30 a barrel. A Urals trader noted that Russian oil remains in strong demand, helping sustain its price levels. Saudi Aramco’s move follows an OPEC+ decision to raise output, increasing supply competition in Asia. Despite steady discounts, the actual price of Urals on a FOB basis from Russian ports is at its lowest since 2023 due to falling Brent benchmarks. Nevertheless, tight Urals supply for April-May is supporting prices as refinery operations in Russia run higher than expected. Maintenance season typically lowers refinery output and boosts exports, but unplanned outages from earlier drone attacks have already impacted production. As a result, idle Russian refinery capacity in May is expected to decrease compared to April.

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Czech Republic Ends Russian Oil Reliance with TAL Pipeline Expansion

The Czech Republic has declared full independence from Russian oil, receiving its first increased western oil deliveries via the upgraded TAL pipeline. Prime Minister Petr Fiala announced the milestone, marking the end of roughly 60 years of dependence on Russian crude, particularly from the Druzhba pipeline. The TAL pipeline now supplies 8 million tonnes per year, enough to meet the country’s entire demand, following upgrades that connect oil from Trieste, Italy through Germany to the Czech Republic. Czech refiner Orlen Unipetrol will begin processing Norwegian crude next week at its Litvinov refinery, replacing oil drawn from emergency reserves after Russian deliveries ceased in March. Last year, 42% of Czech oil imports still came via Druzhba, though that share had previously reached 58%. Recent imports now also include crude from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Norway, and Guyana. MERO, the pipeline operator, will keep Druzhba functional for potential future use, such as oil routed from Ukraine’s Odesa port. While the Czech Republic has moved away from Russian oil, neighboring Hungary and Slovakia continue to rely on it.

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IMO Defends Emissions Deal as Crucial Step Toward Shipping’s Net-Zero Goal by 2050

IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez defended the new shipping emissions agreement, calling it a “positive outcome” despite mixed reactions from member states. The deal imposes binding CO₂ targets and aims to align the maritime sector with net-zero emissions by 2050. Dominguez rejected criticism that the compromise weakens ambition, stating the industry is already set to cut emissions by 20–30% by 2030 from 2008 levels. The agreement faced opposition from oil-producing countries led by Saudi Arabia, who called it technically unfeasible, and from small island nations whose proposal for a carbon levy was dismissed. Despite abstaining from the vote, Dominguez hopes to unify stakeholders before the final approval in October. Starting in 2028, ships exceeding emissions limits will pay into a scheme estimated to generate $11–13 billion annually. The U.S. expressed concern over unfair burdens on its shipping sector and hinted at retaliatory measures. Guy Platten of the International Chamber of Shipping welcomed the deal as a historic first step but noted it lacks the certainty some in the industry desire.