Oil Prices Slip Amid Recession Fears but Maintain Weekly Gains

Oil prices fell on Friday due to concerns that U.S. tariff wars could trigger a global recession, but still marked their third consecutive weekly gain. Brent crude settled at $73.63 per barrel (-0.5%), while WTI closed at $69.36 per barrel (-0.8%). U.S. President Trump announced reciprocal tariffs on imports starting April 2, increasing investor fears of an economic slowdown. Despite recession risks, oil demand indicators remain stable, and U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.3 million barrels, exceeding expectations. On a weekly basis, Brent crude gained 1.9%, and WTI rose 1.6%, with Brent up over 7% since early March lows. U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and Iran continue to disrupt supply, with Venezuela’s output expected to drop by 200,000 barrels per day. Major buyers, including China and India’s Reliance Industries, are reducing or halting Venezuelan oil imports due to uncertainty. The OPEC+ group, led by Russia, plans to gradually increase oil production from April, potentially balancing the market in the coming months.

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PetroChina Reports Record 2024 Net Profit Amid Higher Production

PetroChina, Asia’s largest oil and gas producer, reported a record net profit of 164.7 billion yuan ($22.68 billion) in 2024, up 2% from 161.1 billion yuan in 2023, despite a 2.5% dip in revenue to 2,938.0 billion yuan. The company’s crude oil production rose 0.5% to 941.8 million barrels (2.57 million barrels per day), while natural gas output increased 4.1% to 5,133.8 billion cubic feet. However, the average realized crude price was 3.8% lower year-on-year. Refinery output declined 1.5% to 1.38 billion barrels per year as economic slowdown and vehicle electrification reduced fuel demand, leading to a 4.5% drop in gasoline sales and a 6.9% drop in diesel sales, though jet fuel sales rose 9% due to air travel recovery. Chemical product output surged 49.3%. In 2025, PetroChina forecasts crude oil production at 936.2 million barrels and natural gas at 5,341 billion cubic feet, with refinery output expected at 1.3 billion barrels. Capital expenditure for 2025 is set at 262.2 billion yuan, down from 275.8 billion in 2024, and the company proposed a final dividend of 0.25 yuan per share.

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CNOOC Discovers 100-Million-Ton Oilfield in South China Sea

China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has discovered a significant oilfield in the eastern South China Sea with proven reserves exceeding 100 million tonnes, according to Xinhua. Named Huizhou 19-6, the oilfield is located approximately 170 km from Shenzhen in Guangdong Province at an average water depth of 100 meters. Test drilling has shown promising results, yielding a daily production of 413 barrels of crude oil and 68,000 cubic meters of natural gas.

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China’s Second Batch of Refined Fuel Export Quotas Drops Year-on-Year

China has issued 12.8 million metric tons of refined fuel export quotas in its second batch of allowances for 2025, down 1.2 million tons from the previous year, according to trade sources. The quotas, covering gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel, were primarily allocated to state oil giants Sinopec and CNPC (9.25 million tons, or 73%), while Zhejiang Petrochemical Corp, the only private refiner with quotas, received 1.18 million tons. This issuance was earlier than usual, suggesting strong gasoline exports through May, with estimates reaching up to 250,000 barrels per day. The majority of quotas (8.8 million tons, or 69%) fall under the general trade category, allowing greater flexibility in exports, while processing trade quotas, mainly for aviation fuel, have stricter restrictions. Additionally, China issued 5.2 million tons of low-sulfur marine fuel quotas, 1.2 million tons higher than last year, bringing total second-batch export allowances to 18 million tons and the yearly total to 45 million tons—matching last year’s levels. Industry estimates project March and April exports of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel at approximately 3.3 million and 3.1 million tons, respectively.

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Saudi Arabia May Cut May Oil Prices for Asia to Three-Month Low

Saudi Arabia, the world’s top oil exporter, is expected to lower its crude prices for Asian buyers in May to a three-month low, following sharp declines in benchmark prices, according to traders. The May official selling price (OSP) for Arab Light crude may drop by $1.80 to $2 per barrel from April, bringing it to a premium of about $1.50 to $1.70 per barrel over Oman and Dubai prices—its lowest since February. This follows a 40-cent cut in April prices after two consecutive hikes, as OPEC+ proceeded with a planned April output increase of 138,000 barrels per day. OPEC+, which supplies over 40% of global oil, is expected to continue raising output in May. Prices for other Saudi crude grades, including Arab Extra Light and Arab Medium, may decrease by at least $1.85, while Arab Heavy could fall by $1.80, though U.S. tariff threats on Venezuelan oil imports may provide some support. The weakening Middle Eastern market is also influenced by an increase in Russian oil exports to Asia, particularly China and India, as non-sanctioned tankers re-enter the trade. Saudi Aramco determines its OSPs based on customer recommendations and shifts in oil values but does not publicly comment on pricing decisions.

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Talks on Restarting Iraqi Kurdish Oil Exports Stalled Over Payment Disputes

Negotiations to resume Kurdish oil exports through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline have stalled due to unresolved issues regarding payments and contracts, according to sources familiar with the matter. The discussions, ongoing since February, have yet to resolve the nearly two-year suspension of oil flows from northern Iraq to Turkey’s Ceyhan port. The U.S. has pressured Iraq to restart shipments or risk sanctions, but Baghdad remains hesitant. Iraq’s oil ministry recently requested an independent consultant to assess production and transport costs, raising concerns among international oil companies about future payments. APIKUR, a coalition of eight oil firms operating in Kurdistan, insists exports will not resume without guarantees from Baghdad on honoring contracts and securing payments. The U.S. seeks to restart the pipeline to boost global supply and counter Iran’s oil trade, while Iraq remains cautious about getting entangled in U.S.-Iran tensions.

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Trump Threatens Bombing and Tariffs if Iran Fails to Reach Nuclear Deal

U.S. President Donald Trump warned Iran on Sunday of potential bombing and secondary tariffs if Tehran does not agree to a new nuclear deal with the United States. Trump, speaking to NBC News, stated that the bombing would be unlike anything Iran had experienced before, and hinted at secondary tariffs similar to those he imposed on Venezuela four years ago. Iran, however, rejected direct negotiations under U.S. "maximum pressure" and military threats, with President Masoud Pezeshkian reaffirming the policy of indirect talks. Trump's remarks also mentioned secondary tariffs on Russia and Iran, following his recent executive order imposing tariffs on Venezuelan oil buyers. Trump had previously withdrawn the U.S. from the 2015 nuclear deal, leading Iran to exceed uranium enrichment limits, which raised concerns about its potential to develop nuclear weapons. Tehran insists its nuclear program is for civilian energy purposes, while Western powers accuse it of pursuing a clandestine nuclear weapons agenda.

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Trump Threatens Tariffs on Russian Oil Buyers Amid Ukraine Ceasefire Standoff

U.S. President Donald Trump warned on Sunday that he would impose secondary tariffs of 25% to 50% on buyers of Russian oil if Moscow obstructs his efforts to end the Ukraine war. His frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin grew after Putin questioned Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s leadership. Trump, who has sought a ceasefire in Ukraine since taking office in January, said he could implement the tariffs within a month. The move would primarily impact China and India, major buyers of Russian oil. Trump also suggested he might impose similar sanctions on Iranian oil buyers if Tehran does not end its nuclear weapons program. Meanwhile, Trump is under increasing pressure to establish a ceasefire, with Finnish President Alexander Stubb proposing an April 20 deadline. Trump’s aggressive trade measures come as he ramps up tariffs on steel, aluminum, and imports from trade-surplus countries, further reshaping global economic dynamics.

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Scorpio Tanker Ships First Libyan Oil Cargo to Norway in Over Two Years

Norway has resumed imports of Libyan oil, with a Scorpio Tankers vessel, the LR2 STI Spiga, chartered by Equinor, delivering 600,000 barrels of Sharara crude to the Mongstad refinery. This marks the first shipment of Libyan Sharara crude to Norway since October 2022. The tanker loaded the crude at Libya’s Zawia port on February 27 and discharged it in March. The resumption of shipments follows a recovery in Libya's oil production, which had been interrupted by a dispute over revenue control, but production has now returned to 1.3 million barrels per day. The Sharara crude, a light, sweet oil, is highly valued by European refiners.

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Canadian Exports Boost Aframax Tanker Rates Amid US Tariffs

Following the imposition of 10% tariffs by the US on Canadian energy exports, Canadian crude shipments have shifted towards Europe, benefiting Aframax tanker owners. The tanker market saw a significant surge, with rates for Aframax vessels jumping 13% to $45,800 per day, reflecting a nearly 72% increase from the previous month. European refiners, facing tight supply and seasonal demand, have absorbed the redirected volumes, particularly from Canada, with the Netherlands and the UK accounting for most of the European imports. The rise in transatlantic shipments and the increasing demand for cross-Mediterranean routes is expected to continue into the second quarter, with rates for eco-designed ships in the Mediterranean peaking at $67,000 per day. Additionally, North Sea Aframaxes saw a notable increase, with rates hitting $46,900 per day.

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Greek Owner Adam Polemis Linked to Sale of Vintage VLCC

Adam Polemis, owner of New Shipping, is reportedly selling the Japanese-built 300,000-dwt VLCC New Naxos (built 2003) for a price between $31.5 million and $33.5 million. The sale represents a lucrative return, as Polemis had purchased the vessel for about $21 million from Mitsui OSK Lines seven years ago. If confirmed, this will be New Shipping’s first ship divestment since the autumn of 2023. The New Naxos is part of New Shipping’s fleet of tankers, many of which are older vessels potentially up for sale or demolition in the near future. This follows a trend seen in the Greek shipping market, with other owners also selling older VLCCs, such as Chandris (Hellas) and Thanassis Martinos' Eastern Mediterranean Maritime, who sold vintage vessels in recent months. Asian buyers, particularly those from China and the Middle East, continue to be active in the secondhand tanker market.