2024.11.15

"Oil Prices Edge Higher Amid U.S. Fuel Stock Draw, Strong Dollar Caps Gains"

Oil prices rose slightly as a steep decline in U.S. fuel stocks countered concerns over oversupply and slow demand due to a stronger dollar.

Brent and WTI each gained 0.4%, though both remain on track for weekly losses. U.S. gasoline stocks fell by 4.4 million barrels, hitting a low not seen since November 2022, while distillate stocks also dropped.

However, a significant 2.1-million-barrel rise in U.S. crude inventories and a strong dollar dampened gains, as dollar-denominated oil becomes pricier for other currency holders. The IEA and OPEC revised demand forecasts, signaling potential oversupply into 2025.

[SLOW] Oil Market

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"Nigeria Boosts Oil Production to 1.8 Million Barrels Per Day, Aiming for 2 Million by Year-End"

Nigeria’s NNPC announced an increase in oil production to 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd), with a target of 2 million bpd by year-end. This surge follows collaborative efforts with partners, government agencies, and security forces to address issues like crude theft, sabotage, and local unrest that have hindered production. In June, NNPC launched a 'war room' to curb theft, resulting in the destruction of vessels and arrests of illegal refiners. The efforts, bolstered by security and strict pipeline monitoring, have been essential to production recovery.

[SLOW] EIA - Nigeria Oil Production

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"Eneos Actively Seeks Spot VLCC Cargoes, Evaluates Canadian Crude from TMX Pipeline"

Japanese refiner and shipowner Eneos Holdings is highly active in acquiring spot crude oil, considering Canadian crude from the new Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline as an option alongside U.S. and South American barrels. CEO Tomohide Miyata noted that Eneos is open to Canadian imports if cost-effective, though the heavy nature of Canadian crude requires careful evaluation of refining expenses. Japan's North American oil imports surged recently, reducing dependency on Middle Eastern supplies. The TMX pipeline’s west coast outlet now facilitates quicker Canadian crude imports for Asian refiners.

[SLOW] Flow Oil Pipeline TMX Oil Pipeline

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"IEA Forecasts Oil Surplus in 2025 as Global Demand Slows"

The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a global oil surplus in 2025, with supply expected to exceed demand by over 1 million barrels per day (bpd), even if OPEC+ production cuts continue. This surplus is driven by increased output from countries like the U.S., Canada, and Argentina, while demand growth remains weak, particularly due to a slowdown in China and the shift toward clean energy. The IEA raised its 2024 demand growth forecast slightly to 920,000 bpd, but it remains cautious about future demand, contrasting with more optimistic projections from OPEC. Oil prices dipped following the report.

[SLOW] EIA - World Oil Supply & Demand Out Look

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"Monte Nero Orders Tankers from Cosco HI Guangdong Shipyard"

Monte Nero Management has ordered up to four 50,000-dwt product tankers from Cosco HI Guangdong, marking a return for the Chinese shipyard in newbuilding. Two firm vessels, due in 2027, are priced at $43-44 million each, with options for two more. This expands Monte Nero's fleet, complementing its orders for other vessels under construction in China.

 [SLOW] Shipyard Analytics

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"Austria’s Russian Gas Supply at Risk Due to Arbitration Dispute with Gazprom"

OMV, Austria’s primary gas supplier, warns that Russian gas supplies could halt by year-end amid an arbitration dispute with Gazprom. Austria remains one of the few European countries reliant on Russian gas, with 82% of imports sourced from Gazprom. An arbitral award granted OMV over €230 million for disrupted supplies to its German unit. If Gazprom doesn’t pay, OMV plans to offset the claim against its Austrian contract invoices, potentially affecting gas flow. Austria's OMV has taken steps to mitigate a cut-off, including contracts with German, Italian, and LNG suppliers. European gas prices surged as supply concerns grow.

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