2024.11.14

EIA Slightly Increases Oil Production Forecasts for U.S. and Global Markets

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its 2024 oil production forecasts, expecting U.S. output to reach record levels of 13.23 million bpd this year and 13.53 million bpd in 2025. Global production is also set to rise, though weakening demand growth has kept prices low despite OPEC+ cuts. EIA foresees global demand growing by 1 million bpd in 2024, while cautioning that commitment to production cuts among OPEC+ members may be faltering.

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Russia’s Seaborne Oil Exports Drop 7% in October Due to Refinery Maintenance

Russia’s seaborne oil product exports fell 7% in October to 8.861 million tons, mainly due to seasonal and unplanned refinery maintenance. Increased idle refining capacity affected production, especially in Baltic ports, where exports dropped 4.5%, and in the Black Sea ports, down 12.6% following a Rosneft refinery shutdown. Arctic port exports decreased significantly by 41.5%, while exports from Far East ports rose 14.8% as local refinery maintenance concluded.

[SLOW] Trade Flow _ From Russia To World Monthly Trade Flow (Clean, Ocean, Total, Based on Loading date)

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Oil Prices Rebound on Short-Covering Amid Strong Dollar and Demand Concerns

Oil prices rebounded slightly on Wednesday after short-covering, following a dip due to OPEC’s reduced demand forecast. Brent crude rose by 0.5% to $72.28, and WTI increased to $68.43. Gains were limited as the U.S. dollar hit a seven-month high, making oil more expensive for international buyers. The market remains bearish due to weak demand in key regions, while geopolitical risks from Iran-Israel tensions and potential U.S. sanctions on Iran add supply uncertainty. U.S. crude stocks fell last week, and the International Energy Agency will release its demand forecast update on Thursday.

[SLOW] Oil Market

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Kazakhstan’s Largest Oilfield Tengiz Cuts Output by 21% Amid OPEC+ Compliance

Kazakhstan’s Tengiz oil field, operated by Chevron, reduced its output by 21% since October 26, producing 496,200 barrels per day due to maintenance, according to industry sources.

The decrease aids Kazakhstan in meeting its OPEC+ production targets, with October’s national output down about 20% from September.

Tengiz, a key contributor to Kazakhstan’s oil production along with Karachaganak and Kashagan fields, recently reached record output before the cut. Chevron plans to expand Tengiz's production capacity to 850,000 bpd by mid-2025 in a $49 billion project.

[SLOW] EIA - Kazakhstan oil Production

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Cosco Shipping Energy Orders Six VLCCs for $795 Million in Fleet Expansion Effort

Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation (CSET) has ordered six new 307,000-dwt VLCC crude carriers from Dalian Shipbuilding for $795 million, marking the company’s return to VLCC orders since 2017.

Priced at $132 million each, these conventionally fueled tankers are among the year’s most costly VLCCs.

The order reflects CSET’s strategy to renew its fleet amid rising VLCC demand. Additionally, CSET will bolster its Hainan subsidiary with a capital increase and establish Dalian Cosco Shipping Energy Supply Chain to integrate LPG and chemical transport assets, backed by a substantial financing plan.

 [SLOW] Shipyard Analytics

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Suncor’s Strong Q3 Results Mark Comeback as Oil Sands Leader

Suncor Energy’s Q3 performance surpasses expectations, signaling its transformation from underperformer to sector leader. Under CEO Rich Kruger, Suncor has improved safety, efficiency, and output, reaching debt goals early and pledging full free cash flow to shareholders. Activist investor Elliott Management’s push for change has helped drive a 29% stock increase this year. While analysts praise the turnaround, they note potential challenges with aging assets and a weaker oil price outlook.