2024.11.07

Trump's Win, Tariffs, and Sanctions: Impact on the Global Shipping Industry

Donald Trump’s re-election casts uncertainty over the global shipping market, with potential for heightened tariffs and sanctions. His protectionist stance and fondness for tariffs could lead to new taxes on imports, impacting container shipping as companies rush to import goods before any tariffs take effect, temporarily raising container rates. Trump is also expected to maintain sanctions on countries like Iran, Venezuela, and Russia, tightening oil supplies and benefiting energy shipping markets. While his energy policies may support tankers and fossil fuels, container shipping could suffer from supply chain disruptions, inefficiencies, and rising costs. Markets remain volatile as Trump’s policies could reshape global trade routes and pricing.

[SLOW] OFAC Sanction Tanker List _ Listed tanker count

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Iran’s oil exports at risk amid tough sanction threats

Donald Trump’s upcoming return to the White House could spell trouble for Iran’s oil exports, which have flourished under the Biden administration. Trump’s likely approach would renew his 2019 “maximum pressure” strategy, aiming to restrict Iran’s export revenues and target oil trade with key buyers, particularly China. Experts believe Trump’s renewed sanctions could slash Iran’s daily oil exports by 750,000 to 1 million barrels, disrupting global oil dynamics.

Although Iran has built a “shadow fleet” to bypass sanctions, Trump’s policy is expected to prioritize clamping down on Iranian flows and reducing its influence, especially through talks with China and by pressuring ports receiving Iranian oil.

[SLOW] EIA - Crude Oil Outlook _ Iran oil production

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Trump’s win signals shift toward fossil fuels and reversal of clean energy policies

Donald Trump’s election victory is set to reshape US energy policy, with potential rollbacks in climate regulations and new support for oil and gas industries. Trump aims to scale back federal support for electric vehicles (EVs) and revise EPA rules that favor EV adoption. He has also pledged to accelerate fossil fuel extraction on public lands, streamline offshore drilling permits, and lift restrictions on liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, benefiting companies like ConocoPhillips and Energy Transfer. However, his approach may challenge renewable energy progress, as clean-energy advocates brace for policy changes that could impact investments and job creation across the U.S.

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[SLOW] Oil Market  North Sea oil price Oserberg, Trol, Forties, Brent, and Ural

Urals oil prices exceed western price cap amid rising Brent and lower freight costs

Urals crude prices have surpassed the $60-per-barrel Western price cap for November loadings at Russian Baltic and Black Sea ports, bolstered by stronger Brent prices and reduced shipping costs on routes to Asia. Urals cargoes from Primorsk port are priced at $63, while Novorossiysk loads are at $64.2 per barrel. Discounts in Indian ports, the primary market for Urals, remain steady at $3.50-$3.80 below Brent. Lower freight rates have resulted from reduced Russian oil exports this month, enabling more affordable shipments despite sanctions. Higher prices promise increased oil revenues for Russia, while India, adhering to international sanctions, remains a key Urals buyer.

[SLOW] https://slowspace.io/  Trade Flow Russian ports Primorsk and Novorossiysk seaborne crude exports by destination countries

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Vitol, Trafigura, and BP dominate purchases as Nigeria’s Dangote refinery boosts output

Vitol, Trafigura, and BP are leading buyers of fuel from Nigeria's new Dangote oil refinery near Lagos, a massive facility reshaping fuel trading across Africa and Europe. Since mid-2024, the refinery has been ramping up production, reaching a processing rate of around 420,000 barrels of crude per day and loading close to 6 million tons of fuel so far, primarily diesel and fuel oil. Once fully operational, Dangote's capacity is set to reach 650,000 barrels a day, making it the largest refinery in both Africa and Europe and reducing Nigeria's crude surplus.

[SLOW] https://slowspace.io/ Dangote Refinery Cargo Flow