2024.11.01

[SLOW] EIA - Crude Oil Outlook _ United States

US oil output hits record levels, complicating OPEC's supply decisions

US oil production set a new record in August, reaching 13.4 million barrels per day, largely due to high output from the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico. This growth adds pressure on OPEC, which is contemplating whether to increase supplies in December amid a potential global surplus. Imports from Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s top producer, have declined to 235,000 barrels per day, the lowest since early 2021. With US output steadily rising, the global market could face oversupply next year, especially as oil prices soften amid economic uncertainty and reduced geopolitical risks.

[SLOW] https://slowspace.io/ Trade Flow US seaborne crude and product imports by origin countries

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[SLOW] Tanker Fleet Study _ Top 30 tanker owners by total deadweight tons

Cosco Shipping Energy profit drops as tanker rates reach yearly low

Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation (CSET) saw third-quarter profits fall due to weakened tanker rates during seasonal refinery maintenance and OPEC production cuts. Despite a slight revenue increase to CNY 5.5bn, rising costs impacted profits, down to CNY 808m. Early-year gains from Middle Eastern fleet shortages and Atlantic exports tapered off. Additionally, CSET is expanding its fleet, acquiring 16 LPG and chemical carriers in a $126bn deal through a new subsidiary.

[SLOW] Daily VLCC Market _ Q3 : VLCC TCE comparison by routes

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Dirty-to-Clean Shift: temporary trend or future of the tanker market

In a recent earnings call, Scorpio Tankers’ chief commercial officer, Lars Dencker Nielsen, addressed the trend of “dirty” tankers—normally crude carriers—switching to carry clean products, which affected Scorpio and other product tanker operators this summer. The trend was driven by a significant rate spread between clean and dirty cargo markets, prompting some VLCCs and suezmaxes to switch at high expense. However, Scorpio expects this to decline, as most of the 45 crude vessels that made the shift are now returning to crude. Scorpio remains optimistic about crude market strength, reflected in its new stake in VLCC owner DHT Holdings.

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[SLOW] https://slowspace.io/ Satellite Vaca Muerta field and oil pipeline

Argentina's shale boom set to boost crude exports, creating demand for larger tankers

Argentina’s rising shale oil production, led by the Vaca Muerta field, is expected to drive crude export demand significantly by 2030. Production has reached 369,000 bpd this year, with exports up 20% from 2023, now averaging over 110,000 bpd. Aframax tankers currently carry 31% of exports, a sharp rise from 4% last year, while panamax/LR1 usage has decreased. With new pipelines and port expansions planned by 2026, VLCC tankers could soon play a major role in Argentina's exports. Meanwhile, South America’s refinery growth lags, setting up the region’s crude for global export markets.

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[SLOW] https://slowspace.io/ Tuapse Refinery Cargo Flow

Russia's Tuapse Refinery to restart in November after month-long suspension

Rosneft’s Tuapse oil refinery, a key export facility on Russia's Black Sea coast, is set to resume operations in November after halting processing on October 1 due to low refining margins. The refinery is expected to handle around 480,000 metric tons of crude next month, primarily producing naphtha, fuel oil, vacuum gasoil, and high-sulfur diesel for export markets like Turkey, China, Malaysia, and Singapore. With a capacity of 240,000 bpd, the Tuapse plant contributes minimally to Russia’s domestic gasoline and low-sulfur diesel supply.

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[SLOW] https://slowspace.io/ Oil Pipeline  Druzhba Pipeline

Hungary sticks with Druzhba pipeline for crude oil as EU presses for diversification

Hungary will continue to rely on the Druzhba pipeline as its main crude oil supply route, Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto announced after meeting with Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. This decision follows testing that revealed capacity issues with the Adriatic pipeline, which Hungary explored as an alternative. Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic are exempt from the EU's Russian oil embargo due to limited alternatives, though the EU urges them to diversify. Alongside crude, Hungary has imported 6.2 billion cubic meters of Russian gas via Turkstream this year, and construction of a Rosatom-built nuclear plant is ongoing.

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Brazil poised to become global leader in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production

Brazil’s extensive ethanol production and agricultural resources are positioning it as a major player in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) development, with companies like Shell, Mubadala, and Raizen investing in SAF plants. Leveraging its low-carbon sugarcane ethanol, Brazil could meet growing global SAF demand and become a top exporter. Supported by favorable policies and new biofuel mandates, Brazil is racing to build its own SAF facilities and strengthen its infrastructure. This growth could make Brazil competitive with the US, which is also scaling SAF under its Inflation Reduction Act.