2024.10.25

"Oil Prices Ease Amid Ceasefire Talks and Middle East Geopolitical Concerns"

Oil prices fell by around 1% on Thursday as reports emerged of the U.S. and Israel attempting to restart ceasefire negotiations in Gaza.

Brent crude dropped to $74.38 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $70.19.

Earlier gains from concerns over potential oil supply disruptions due to the ongoing Middle East conflict were offset by this news and uncertainty surrounding the upcoming U.S. presidential election on Nov 5.

Analysts pointed out that the energy market continues to fluctuate as geopolitical risks expand and contract almost daily.

Additionally, demand concerns from Europe, the UK, and the U.S. are contributing to the broader market's volatility.

[SLOW] Oil Price Monitor

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Permian Oil Pipelines Unlikely Due to Volume Growth Concerns

Top executives from U.S. energy pipeline operators announced that new crude oil pipelines out of the Permian shale field in West Texas are unlikely to be built, citing slow volume growth and construction challenges.

Consolidation in the shale industry has led producers to prioritize output restraint to avoid price crashes. Instead of new lines, companies like Enterprise Products Partners and Plains All American Pipeline are focusing on optimizing existing infrastructure.

While some expansions, such as Enbridge’s planned increase to its Gray Oak pipeline, are in the works, overall, producers are taking a more cautious approach. Additionally, the Sea Port Oil Terminal (SPOT) project faces hurdles, including regulatory delays and a lack of initial customers.

[SLOW] https://slowspace.io/_FLOW_Polygon_Oil Pipeline

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saudi Crude Exports Surge Amid Houthi Threats

Saudi Arabia is increasing crude exports from Yanbu port to 863,000 barrels per day in 2023, up from 572,000 bpd last year, using the East-West Pipeline to avoid Houthi attacks.

October exports reached 1.02 million bpd, the highest since April.

The pipeline, with a capacity of 5 million bpd, serves as a critical alternative route to bypass the Bab el Mandeb Strait.

The UAE's Habshan-Fujairah pipeline has also seen a rise in shipments, moving 1.07 million bpd this year.

[SLOW] https://slowspace.io/_FLOW_Polygon_Oil Pipeline

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

South Sudan to Restart Crude Exports

South Sudan plans to resume shipments of its Dar crude blend after a halt due to pipeline issues caused by civil war.

Exports will load at Bashayer port in Sudan, with sources reporting that a force majeure was declared.

The conflict has delayed necessary repairs, impacting key infrastructure.

Dar blend shipments, which averaged 80,000 barrels per day from 2020 to 2023, mainly went to Malaysia and China.

South Sudan produces about 160,000 bpd, while Sudan produces around 50,000 bpd.

[SLOW] https://slowspace.io/_FLOW

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Fire-Damaged VLCC Returns to China After Collision

The VLCC Ceres I, damaged in a July collision with the Hafnia Nile near the Singapore Strait, has returned to China for the first time since the incident.

The Ceres I is linked to the trade of US-sanctioned cargoes from Iran and Venezuela.

Investigations into the collision continue, raising questions about the vessel's management, previously listed as Blueshark Shipping in Singapore, which appears to be inactive.

The Ceres I has not called at a Chinese port since February 2021 and was recently located off Zhoushan.

The Hafnia Nile was towed to Singapore in September after unloading its cargo.

[SLOW] https://slowspace.io/_FLOW

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Russian Oil Exports from Western Ports to Drop 13% in November as Refinery Maintenance Ends"

Russia’s crude oil exports from key western ports (Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and Novorossiisk) are expected to fall by 13% in November, reaching 1.95 million barrels per day due to the conclusion of refinery maintenance.

Russian refineries are set to ramp up operations in November with fewer units offline-down to 1.8 million tons of capacity from 4.4 million in October.

This shift typically reduces export volumes, but due to weak global refining margins, some Russian refineries may hesitate to increase production.

Russian crude output saw a slight decrease in September, aligning with OPEC+ commitments.

[SLOW] https://slowspace.io/_Trade Flow

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------