2024.10.04

Aframax and Suezmax tanker rates skyrocket over 23% amid US Gulf coast demand surge

Aframax and Suezmax tanker rates have jumped more than 23% in a single day due to a surge in cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf Coast. Spot earnings for Aframax increased by over $8,100 per day, reaching nearly $42,500, while Suezmax rates rose by $6,800, pushing earnings to over $35,100 per day. This spike follows a period of low rates in September and October. The surge was driven by strong demand for Aframax tonnage, which also boosted Suezmax rates, particularly along routes like West Africa to Europe. Although tensions in the Middle East have contributed to rising oil prices, the broker Robert Boles emphasized that they had a minor impact on the recent tanker rate surge. The Baltic Exchange reported that spot earnings for larger VLCC surged over $2,100 on Thursday, reaching $39,200 per day.

[SLOW] Aframax Market Monitor _ TCE comparison by Aframax routes

[SLOW] Suezmax Market Monitor Freight Indices TD6 / TD20 / TD23

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Libya reopens oilfields and terminals, boosting output

Libya's National Oil Corporation (NOC) and the eastern-based government have announced the reopening of all oilfields and export terminals following the resolution of a dispute over the leadership of the central bank. This move could significantly boost Libya's oil production, which was previously disrupted when key oilfields like Sharara and El Feel were shut down in August and September due to political conflicts. The NOC has lifted the force majeure on these oilfields and expects to resume operations, though technical problems at the El Feel field are limiting it from reaching full capacity. Libya, which had been producing 1.2 million barrels per day before the shutdowns, saw its September exports drop to 460,000 bpd. The reopening is expected to help stabilize the country's oil revenue, with the new central bank governor, Naji Issa, playing a key role in financing projects to raise production.

[SLOW] https://slowspace.io/ Trade Flow Libyan seaborne crude exports by ship type

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Iran defies US sanctions with highest oil exports in five years

Iran’s crude oil exports have risen to 1.92 million barrels per day in September 2024, the highest level since 2019, despite ongoing U.S. sanctions. This marks a 430,000-barrel-per-day increase from the previous month. Iran's storage utilization rate is now around 60%, with significant inventory rebuilding efforts. Iran has managed to circumvent sanctions using a shadow fleet, ship-to-ship transfers, and other covert methods. The increase in exports comes as tensions in the Middle East rise, particularly between Iran and Israel, following military escalations and retaliatory attacks. The price of Brent crude surged by over 5% due to the instability.

[SLOW] EIA - Crude Oil Outlook _ Iran oil production

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West Africa faces gasoline supply shortage as EU regulations and financial issues hit imports

Gasoline exports from the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) region to West Africa reached multi-year lows in September due to a combination of new Belgian legislation and financial challenges among Nigerian importers. Belgium’s new law, which limits the sulfur content in exported fuels to 50 parts per million, aligns with similar restrictions in the Netherlands and tightens the supply of low-quality gasoline to Nigeria, where the current sulfur limit is higher. Gasoline exports from the ARA hub to West Africa dropped to about 150,000 barrels per day (bpd), the lowest since May 2020. Financial difficulties for Nigerian importers also limited any rush to secure higher-sulfur gasoline before the new law took effect. While Nigeria’s Dangote refinery is expected to fill the supply gap, it may take several months before it can meet domestic demand.

In response, West African buyers are exploring alternative sources, with countries like Spain and Malta significantly increasing their gasoline exports to the region. However, many West African buyers may be unwilling or unable to pay more for the higher-quality gasoline required by European regulations.

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[SLOW] Oil Market HSFO Singapore, Fujairah, Rotterdam, and Houston

Singapore's fuel oil stockpiles recover from six-year low

Singapore's onshore fuel oil stockpiles have rebounded by 7.9%, reaching 16.76 million barrels (approximately 2.64 million metric tons) in the week ending October 2, following a sharp decline that brought inventories to a near six-year low. Despite this recovery, fuel oil levels have averaged lower over the past three months due to ongoing tight supply and consistent bunker drawdowns.

While spot premiums for fuel oil loading in the latter half of October have softened, bunker premiums for prompt deliveries, especially for high-sulfur grades, remain strong amid tight cargo availability. Fuel oil imports fell by 6% week-on-week to about 868,000 tons, primarily sourced from Brazil and the United Arab Emirates. Exports surged to about 401,000 tons, more than doubling from the previous week, with most cargoes heading to China.

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[SLOW] https://slowspace.io/ Colombia Gas pipelines

Ecopetrol and Petrobras announce major gas discoveries

Colombia's state-owned Ecopetrol and Brazil's Petrobras have announced two significant gas discoveries that could substantially increase Colombia's reserves and ensure energy self-sufficiency. The Sirius project, led by Petrobras, contains over 6 trillion cubic feet of gas and is expected to start production by 2029 or 2030, delivering 470 million cubic feet of gas per day. This discovery could double the country's gas reserves. Additionally, Ecopetrol discovered the Papayuela offshore well, which has the potential to produce 800 million cubic feet of gas per day, nearly 80% of Colombia's daily demand. These projects are expected to mature over the next 5 to 7 years, with a total investment of around $5 billion.