2024.09.30

Can VLCC rates notch $100,000 per day

VLCC rates could climb to $100,000 per day if OPEC+ members, led by Saudi Arabia, increase oil production as projected. Clarksons Securities predicts that OPEC+ might raise output by 200,000 barrels per day monthly, potentially boosting demand for up to five additional VLCCs each month. Even if only Saudi Arabia raises output, demand for VLCCs could still increase, lifting rates by $20,000 per day to around $65,000. A more optimistic scenario involving all OPEC+ countries could push rates near $100,000 per day.

Signal Group, a Greek analytics firm, also notes tightening vessel availability, leading to rising freight rates, especially as winter approaches, when oil demand traditionally increases. The gradual decline in available ships, combined with China's increasing crude shipments from the Middle East, points toward a strengthening market. The current Baltic Exchange assessment for VLCCs from the Middle East to Asia stands at $32,200 per day, though modern ships equipped with scrubbers earn $10,000 per day more.

[SLOW] Daily VLCC Market _ VLCC TCE comparison by routes

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[SLOW] https://slowspace.io/ Israeli ports Port Haifa

Maritime Industry raises risk level for Israeli ports amid missile threats from Hezbollah and Houthis

Maritime security and industry groups have raised the threat level for ships calling at Israeli ports due to the risk of missile strikes from Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi forces in Yemen. Ports from Eilat on the Red Sea to major Mediterranean ports like Haifa are considered vulnerable, with sirens sounding in Haifa after missile fire this week. A drone launched by an Iraqi militia also hit Eilat port. British maritime security firm Ambrey has classified the risk for vessels as "elevated," warning that further Israeli military actions in Lebanon could target Haifa port directly. Additionally, Houthi forces pose a growing threat in the Red Sea, having sunk two vessels and killed seafarers in recent attacks. The maritime industry is advising ship operators to limit public information about their movements to avoid being targeted by hostile forces.

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[SLOW] https://slowspace.io/ Trade Flow Venezuela seaborne crude exports by destination countries

US weighs new sanctions and oil license revocations on Venezuela 

The US is considering imposing new sanctions on individuals in Venezuela and potentially revoking oil company licenses in response to the country's contested July 28 presidential election, which declared socialist President Nicolás Maduro the winner. Brian Nichols, the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs, emphasized that the US does not recognize Maduro’s victory, citing a lack of transparency and unfulfilled promises to disclose ballot-level vote tallies. 

Venezuela, an OPEC member with a declining oil industry due to underinvestment and five years of US sanctions, has seen some recovery in production. However, Venezuela's opposition is pressing for the withdrawal of oil licenses that benefit Maduro's government.

[SLOW] EIA - Crude Oil Outlook _ Venezuela production

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Pemex ships first fuel export from new Olmeca refinery to India

Mexico's state-owned oil company Pemex has exported its first fuel cargo from the newly constructed Olmeca refinery, shipping 112,000 barrels of petroleum coke to India in September. The cargo, bound for Dahej, an industrial hub in Gujarat, marks a milestone for the refinery, which has faced delays and cost overruns. Pemex combined this shipment with additional petroleum coke from Corpus Christi, Texas. This shipment is expected to reach India by the end of October.

[SLOW] https://slowspace.io/ _ Port Dos Bocas

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[SLOW] https://slowspace.io/  CPC Marine Terminal Port Karachi

Cnergyico becomes first in Pakistan to import Black Sea CPC blend crude oil

Cnergyico, Pakistan's largest oil refiner, has made the country's first-ever purchase of Black Sea CPC Blend crude oil, a light oil grade sourced from Kazakh and Russian producers. This blend, typically used for producing motor gasoline and petrochemicals, offers higher gasoline yields and less fuel oil compared to Russian Urals crude. The CPC Blend was imported after thorough internal assessments, according to a Cnergyico spokesperson.

Cnergyico, which has a refining capacity of 156,000 barrels per day, received two tankers carrying 100,000 metric tons each of CPC Blend in August and September at its single point mooring buoy (SPM) near Karachi, Pakistan’s only floating liquid port. The purchase follows the company's earlier import of Russian Urals oil, marking another entrepreneurial move to diversify feedstock beyond Pakistan’s usual reliance on Saudi and Emirati oil grades.

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AI and data center boom to drive short-term surge in Singapore’s LNG demand

Singapore's LNG demand is expected to rise due to the growth of data centers driven by the AI boom, according to Singapore LNG Corp. CEO Leong Wei Hung. The city's power needs are increasing, with plans to boost data center electricity allocation by 35%. While Singapore relies on LNG for 95% of its electricity, it aims to import more green energy by 2035. A second LNG terminal is planned to meet future demand, as renewables remain costly for now.